A field guide to AI positions

The simulation argument

Conditional philosophical argument.

Source is over 18 months old.

Publication dates and source age

Sources counted: 1

Newest dated source: 2003

Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.

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Prepared with AI assistance. Not independently fact-checked. Original sources and qualifications are below.

In plain language

A conditional argument linking advanced civilizations and simulated observers; it does not prove we live in a simulation. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-simulation-1a5192ba3d7825ca26b24a72. Edition 0.20.0.

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Limits & distinctions

The argument depends on assumptions about computing and consciousness. It does not establish which possibility holds or prove that we live in a simulation. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-simulation-09422ce4d5c74cb753a9bb98. Edition 0.20.0.

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A fuller explanation

Bostrom's 2003 argument links three possibilities: few civilizations reach a posthuman stage; few run many ancestor simulations; or a large share of observers like us are simulated. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-simulation-1e4c26398ee834b2e16dc7b8. Edition 0.20.0.

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How it relates to the map

A claim about possible observers and civilizations, not a prediction of AI development speed. [1]

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Editorial interpretation or qualification. Claim ID: claim-term-simulation-25f52a21ad9f2e54a62ed1b2. Edition 0.20.0.

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Sources and what we read

  1. 1. Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?

    Nick Bostrom / Philosophical Quarterly · First-hand source · Published 2003 · Material last read 2026-09-15

    Source is over 18 months old.

    Publication dates and source age

    Sources counted: 1

    Newest dated source: 2003

    Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

    Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.

    Read scope is described in the source note.

    No archive check recorded.

    Read abstract and introduction. Publication year differs from the first draft in 2001. Conditional philosophical argument, not a finding that our world is simulated.

    Source ID: simulation-paper

Edition and machine-readable evidence

Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.

Pinned complete dataset · Complete evidence page · Agent consumption guide