# The simulation argument

Record: term-simulation · Type: term · Edition: 0.20.0 · Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15

[Read in the atlas](https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/simulation/) · [Complete evidence](https://theaiatlas.org/evidence.html#idea-simulation) · [JSON](https://theaiatlas.org/records/term-simulation.json) · [Pinned complete dataset](https://theaiatlas.org/editions/e74392d479c0e7da8636a7d6a0454d03510df86ffca9931eb86babd952665ca5/data.json)

Dataset pointer: `/glossary/18`. Reviewed: 2026-09-15.

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## Publication dates and source age

Source is over 18 months old.

Newest dated source: 2003. Assessed at this edition’s evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

Publication age does not establish validity or a new source-reading date. Unknown dates and month/year precision remain explicit in the JSON record.

## /summary

A conditional argument linking advanced civilizations and simulated observers; it does not prove we live in a simulation.

Claim: claim-term-simulation-1a5192ba3d7825ca26b24a72. Annotation: synthesis.

[simulation-paper](https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/)

## /definition

Bostrom's 2003 argument links three possibilities: few civilizations reach a posthuman stage; few run many ancestor simulations; or a large share of observers like us are simulated.

Claim: claim-term-simulation-1e4c26398ee834b2e16dc7b8. Annotation: synthesis.

[simulation-paper](https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/)

## /placement

A claim about possible observers and civilizations, not a prediction of AI development speed.

Claim: claim-term-simulation-25f52a21ad9f2e54a62ed1b2. Annotation: editorial.

[simulation-paper](https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/)

## /distinction

The argument depends on assumptions about computing and consciousness. It does not establish which possibility holds or prove that we live in a simulation.

Claim: claim-term-simulation-09422ce4d5c74cb753a9bb98. Annotation: synthesis.

[simulation-paper](https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/)

## Source provenance

### simulation-paper

[Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?](https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/)

Nick Bostrom / Philosophical Quarterly · First-hand source (primary) · Published: 2003 · Material last read: 2026-09-15 · Verification: read

Read scope is described in the source note.

Read abstract and introduction. Publication year differs from the first draft in 2001. Conditional philosophical argument, not a finding that our world is simulated.

No archive check recorded.