Predictive uncertainty
Sources are over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 2
Newest dated source: 2017-08
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
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In plain language
A way to describe limits on a prediction, such as missing knowledge or noisy information. [1]
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Limits & distinctions
Generating several different answers is not automatically a calibrated uncertainty estimate. The categories describe sources of uncertainty; calibration checks whether numerical estimates fit outcomes. [1] [2]
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A fuller explanation
Researchers distinguish uncertainty due to limited knowledge in a model from uncertainty in the observations themselves. Estimating these separately can help show where more data may help and where observations remain ambiguous. [1]
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How it relates to the map
Atlas reading question: what does an uncertainty measure refer to, and how was it checked? [1] [2]
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https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/uncertainty/
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Sources and what we read
1. What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2017-03-15
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the abstract and version history. Used for the distinction between uncertainty in observations and uncertainty in the model. Its experiments concern computer vision, not a validated uncertainty measure for every LLM.
2. On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2017-08
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the proceedings abstract and publication metadata. The experiments concern image and document classifiers, not the reliability of a chatbot saying it is certain.
Edition and machine-readable evidence
Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.
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