A field guide to AI positions

Probability of doom

Informal probability shorthand.

Source is over 18 months old.

Publication dates and source age

Sources counted: 1

Newest dated source: 2023-12-29

Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.

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Prepared with AI assistance. Not independently fact-checked. Original sources and qualifications are below.

In plain language

Someone's estimated chance of an AI disaster; meaningful comparisons need a defined outcome, timeframe and assumptions. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-pdoom-1a5192ba3d7825ca26b24a72. Edition 0.20.0.

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Limits & distinctions

Before comparing estimates, specify what counts as doom, by when, and under which assumptions. The phrase alone supplies none of those details. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-pdoom-09422ce4d5c74cb753a9bb98. Edition 0.20.0.

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A fuller explanation

Shorthand in AI debates for someone's probability estimate of a disastrous outcome. The Verdon interview illustrates this usage. [1]

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Explanation based on the linked sources. Claim ID: claim-term-pdoom-1e4c26398ee834b2e16dc7b8. Edition 0.20.0.

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How it relates to the map

This chart records expressed concern, not p(doom). No probability is inferred from a dot's height. [1]

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Editorial interpretation or qualification. Claim ID: claim-term-pdoom-25f52a21ad9f2e54a62ed1b2. Edition 0.20.0.

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https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/pdoom/

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Sources and what we read

  1. 1. Guillaume Verdon: e/acc, AI doomers and effective altruism (transcript #407)

    Lex Fridman Podcast · First-hand source · Published 2023-12-29 · Material last read 2026-09-15

    Source is over 18 months old.

    Publication dates and source age

    Sources counted: 1

    Newest dated source: 2023-12-29

    Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

    Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.

    Read scope is described in the source note.

    No archive check recorded.

    Read the AI doomers and effective altruism sections as examples of contested terminology. An advocate's description of opponents is not a neutral definition of their views. Transcript may contain errors.

    Source ID: verdon-interview

Edition and machine-readable evidence

Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.

Pinned complete dataset · Complete evidence page · Agent consumption guide