Newcomb's problem
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2010
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
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In plain language
A thought experiment about choosing between rewards after a predictor has already tried to anticipate your choice. [1]
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Limits & distinctions
The puzzle assumes a predictor with specified accuracy. It does not demonstrate that such a predictor exists, or that choices change the past. [1]
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A fuller explanation
Imagine two boxes: a clear one holding a small reward and a closed one. A predictor put a large reward in the closed box only if it predicted you would take that box alone. Now you choose one box or both, after the prediction has already been made. [1]
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How it relates to the map
A way to expose disagreement about causation, evidence and prediction in decision theory. [1]
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https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/newcomb/
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Sources and what we read
1. Timeless Decision Theory
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2010
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read abstract and opening Newcomb discussion. Year follows the paper's citation. Proposed framework and formal examples, not an experimentally settled rule.
Edition and machine-readable evidence
Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.
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