Competing decision theories
Sources are over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 2
Newest dated source: 2017
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
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In plain language
Competing ways to decide what to do, which can recommend different choices in carefully constructed prediction puzzles. [1] [2]
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Limits & distinctions
The claimed advantages of TDT and FDT depend on formal setups. A proposal's successes in toy problems are not universal proof that it is the right real-world decision rule. [2]
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A fuller explanation
Causal decision theory (CDT) asks what an action would cause. Evidential decision theory (EDT) asks what choosing it would be evidence of. Timeless (TDT) and functional decision theory (FDT) also consider logical links between the rule making a choice and predictions or other decisions. [1] [2]
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How it relates to the map
These are proposals about how to choose, not AI political movements. They disagree in carefully constructed prediction puzzles. [2]
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https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/decision-theory/
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Sources and what we read
1. Timeless Decision Theory
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2010
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read abstract and opening Newcomb discussion. Year follows the paper's citation. Proposed framework and formal examples, not an experimentally settled rule.
2. Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2017
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the authors' abstract and MIRI's October 22, 2017 introduction. Advantages are claimed within specified decision problems.
Edition and machine-readable evidence
Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.
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