Acausal trade & blackmail
Dated sources are over 18 months old; other dates are unknown.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 3
Newest dated source: 2017
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Some publication dates are unknown; the newest dated source may not be the newest source overall.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Open in the glossary Reading notes · Structured record
In plain language
A theoretical proposal for coordination without communication, based on logical links between decisions rather than signals traveling backward in time. [1] [2]
Reference this explanation or suggest a correction
Link to this explanation · Suggest a correction · How corrections work
Limits & distinctions
Logical dependence is not backward-in-time causation. Knowing a story is not equivalent to the strong mutual knowledge assumed in these models. [2]
Reference this explanation or suggest a correction
Link to this explanation · Suggest a correction · How corrections work
A fuller explanation
A proposal about decision-makers who cannot communicate but can reason about each other's choices. The idea depends on a logical link between their decisions, such as using the same decision rule. Trade seeks mutual benefit; blackmail adds a threat. [3] [1]
Reference this explanation or suggest a correction
Link to this explanation · Suggest a correction · How corrections work
How it relates to the map
A family of idealized decision problems. It does not place a community on the map or establish a real-world obligation. [1]
Reference this explanation or suggest a correction
Link to this explanation · Suggest a correction · How corrections work
Share this page
https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/acausal/
Download a share image · Vector image
Image previews are summaries. Keep the page link so readers can check the evidence.
Sources and what we read
1. Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality
Source is over 18 months old.
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Newest dated source: 2017
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the authors' abstract and MIRI's October 22, 2017 introduction. Advantages are claimed within specified decision problems.
2. A few misconceptions surrounding Roko's basilisk
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Publication dates are unavailable.
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Some publication dates are unknown; the newest dated source may not be the newest source overall.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the community response and quoted objections in the initial retrieval; a later fetch timed out. Used for disputed assumptions, not proof about hypothetical agents. Exact publication date was not independently established.
3. Roko's Basilisk
Publication dates and source age
Sources counted: 1
Publication dates are unavailable.
Assessed at this edition's evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.
Some publication dates are unknown; the newest dated source may not be the newest source overall.
Publication age does not tell us whether a claim is still valid. Reading an old source again does not make its publication date newer. An update date does not establish that the passage we used was updated.
Read the community retrospective, objections and moderation account. Original deleted post not independently retrieved. Historical claims are attributed to this account.
Edition and machine-readable evidence
Content version 0.20.0. Evidence cutoff 2026-09-15; this does not mean every source was read on that day.
Pinned complete dataset · Complete evidence page · Agent consumption guide