# Existential risk / x-risk

Record: term-xrisk · Type: term · Edition: 0.20.0 · Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15

[Read in the atlas](https://theaiatlas.org/ideas/xrisk/) · [Complete evidence](https://theaiatlas.org/evidence.html#idea-xrisk) · [JSON](https://theaiatlas.org/records/term-xrisk.json) · [Pinned complete dataset](https://theaiatlas.org/editions/e74392d479c0e7da8636a7d6a0454d03510df86ffca9931eb86babd952665ca5/data.json)

Dataset pointer: `/glossary/29`. Reviewed: 2026-09-15.

> This is a curated, AI-assisted editorial atlas, not a census, affiliation classifier or independently fact-checked authority.

> Coordinates and ranges summarize public positions. They are not probabilities, rankings, statistical intervals or measures of company safety.

> Preserve source attribution, publication precision, retrieval notes, counterpoints and caveats. A read source does not prove its claims true.

> Read applies to the material described by retrieval.scope and notes. Original-post provenance is not a read source; absent archive metadata means no recorded check, not no existing capture.

> Unplaced actors have null positions because evidence is incomplete. A person and a company remain separate records.

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## Publication dates and source age

Dated sources are over 18 months old; other dates are unknown.

Newest dated source: 2021-12-27. Assessed at this edition’s evidence cutoff: 2026-09-15. 18-month boundary: 2025-03-15.

Publication age does not establish validity or a new source-reading date. Unknown dates and month/year precision remain explicit in the JSON record.

## /summary

Risks of extinction or permanent loss of human potential, in Bostrom’s framework. Researchers disagree about definitions, value judgments and how such risks should be assessed.

Claim: claim-term-xrisk-1a5192ba3d7825ca26b24a72. Annotation: synthesis.

[existential-risks](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/existential-risks/) · [glossary-balance-risk-methodology](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11214)

## /definition

In Bostrom's formulation, risks that could eliminate humanity or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. Extinction is one case; not every serious harm is existential.

Claim: claim-term-xrisk-1e4c26398ee834b2e16dc7b8. Annotation: synthesis.

[existential-risks](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/existential-risks/)

## /placement

Helps define the chart's concern axis. Its severity does not determine its probability.

Claim: claim-term-xrisk-25f52a21ad9f2e54a62ed1b2. Annotation: editorial.

[existential-risks](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/existential-risks/)

## /distinction

A catastrophe can be devastating without being existential. Cremer and Kemp argue that risk research should distinguish factual analysis of possible extinction from ethical views about humanity’s future. Their criticism calls for broader methods and participation; it does not establish that extinction risks are absent.

Claim: claim-term-xrisk-09422ce4d5c74cb753a9bb98. Annotation: synthesis.

[existential-risks](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/existential-risks/) · [glossary-balance-risk-methodology](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11214) · [unesco-ethics](https://www.unesco.org/en/artificial-intelligence/recommendation-ethics)

## Source provenance

### existential-risks

[Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/existential-risks/)

Nick Bostrom · First-hand source (primary) · Published: 2002 · Material last read: 2026-09-15 · Verification: read

Read scope is described in the source note.

Read the definition distinguishing existential from other risks. Does not establish the likelihood of a specific scenario.

No archive check recorded.

### glossary-balance-risk-methodology

[Democratising Risk: In Search of a Methodology to Study Existential Risk](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11214)

Carla Zoe Cremer and Luke Kemp / arXiv · First-hand source (primary) · Published: 2021-12-27 · Material last read: 2026-09-15 · Verification: read

Read scope is described in the source note.

Read the abstract and submission history. The authors argue for clearer definitions, plural values and better risk methods. Their criticism of one influential framework is not a finding that all catastrophe research is invalid.

No archive check recorded.

### unesco-ethics

[Ethics of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.unesco.org/en/artificial-intelligence/recommendation-ethics)

UNESCO · First-hand source (primary) · Published: undated · Material last read: 2026-09-15 · Verification: read

Read scope is described in the source note.

Read overview of rights, dignity, fairness and oversight. Recommendation adoption date is not assigned to the live page.

No archive check recorded.